Final Oscar Picks

Been a busy few days, and a rather rough day, so this will be quick and to the point. Here's my final Oscar picks and a few comments from Facebook. I will fix it up as the show goes on, and will talk after about my final thoughts. Here's hoping I can finish up some more Mad Men before Tuesday...

---------------------------

So this is what it comes down to. The big dance, the final show. Everything will either mean everything, or nothing.

Since 2005, I have managed to pull off watching each of the 5 Best Picture films before the show. This year, I only cracked 8. I missed The Blind Side and An Education, but I'm not worried about either of them taking Best Picture. But this year is interesting still for two reasons to me. One is the fact that the Academy immediately reacted to the public outcry over shunning The Dark Knight last year for the fairly mediocre The Reader by stretching the nominee count from 5 to 10. It came out of left field, and it still stuns me that they actually went through with it. While I love that certain movies like District 9 and Up made the final ballot, it still seems really random in practice. We will have to see what it does for the winner tonight. The second is the fact that this year, it seems like I was hand in hand with Oscar for the first time. With the exception of maybe 1 or 2 nominees, the final Best Picture nominees are rarely my favourites of the year. But this year, I have 6 of the 10 in my top 10. Very interesting from a personal stand point, and either shows how far I've come as a film watcher, or how low the Academy's tastes have sunk since I started really paying attention to the show back when, ironically, James Cameron swept with Titanic.

As for the show itself, I'm not expecting a lot of surprises, and that's why my picks are fairly conventional. Although I really think Avatar may take Best Picture, I am sticking with The Hurt Locker. It has been the front runner, and it seems like if they do pick Avatar, it will simply be to keep themselves in favour with the public. But with the backlash against the arrogant/ignorant but totally loveable James Cameron, I don't think they will give it to him. But then there's a lot of backlash against Hurt Locker too, not helped by the twisted events of recent where they officially banned one of the producers for a campaigning email. But will that really leave the door open for Inglorious Basterds to slip in like a lot of people are saying? I don't think so, but I do think it has a fairly good shot at Best Original Screenplay, if only because of the audacity of Quentin Tarantino to completely alter real events.

If there's going to be any surprise, other than a Tarantino win for Screenplay, I think it will be Gabourey Sidibe for Precious. She's simply incredible in the film, and while she is not as good as Mo'Nique (who will win Best Supporting Actress), I think she too has a solid chance at winning, if only to split up this crazy Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock rivalry. Seriously, just because she had a good year does not mean Bullock automatically should take Oscar. I'd love to see this come from behind surprise, in fact I hope it happens.

And I really hope there are more than a handful of surprises tonight too. But sadly, I don't like being crazy, so my picks are fairly conventional. Here's hoping, with bated breath, that The Hurt Locker pulls it off. I will say this though. Even if it loses Picture, if anybody but Kathryn Bigelow goes up to accept Best Director, I will officially boycott the Oscars.

Best Picture - The Hurt Locker

Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Best Actress - Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Best Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Best Animated Film - Up

Best Art Direction - Avatar

Best Cinematography - Avatar

Best Editing - The Hurt Locker

Best Costume Design - The Young Victoria

Best Makeup - Star Trek

Best Original Score - Up

Best Original Song - T-Bone Burnett and Ryan Bingham, "The Weary Kind", Crazy Heart

Best Sound - Avatar

Best Sound Editing - Avatar

Best Visual Effects - Avatar

Best Foreign Language Film - The Prophet, France

Best Documentary - The Cove

Best Documentary, Short Subjects - The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

Best Short Film, Animated - Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death'

Best Short Film, Live Action - The Door